Lack of real empirical, real world data supporting the (Man Made) Global Warming nonsense makes “green” activists desperate, now even a normal summer is reason to worry ..
By Paul Homewood
It’s summer time in the Northern Hemisphere, and it’s hot in places, but according to Jason Samenow of the Washington Post, you must blame it on global warming!
Reposted from the NZ Herald:
From the normally mild summer climes of Ireland, Scotland and Canada to the scorching Middle East, numerous locations in the Northern Hemisphere have witnessed their hottest weather ever recorded over the past week.
Large areas of heat pressure or heat domes scattered around the hemisphere led to the sweltering temperatures.
No single record, in isolation, can be attributed to global warming. But collectively, these heat records are consistent with the kind of extremes we expect to see increase in a warming world.
Let’s take a tour around the world of the recent hot-weather milestones.
A massive and intense heat dome has consumed the eastern two-thirds of the United States and southeast Canada since late last week. It’s not only been hot but also exceptionally humid. Here are some of the notable all-time records set:
• Denver tied its all-time high-temperature record of 40.5 Celsius on Thursday.
• Mount Washington, New Hampshire, tied its all-time warmest low temperature of 15.5C on Monday.
• Burlington, Vermont, set its all-time warmest low temperature ever recorded of 26.6C on Monday.
• Montreal recorded its highest temperature in recorded history, dating back 147 years, of 36.6C on Monday. The city also posted its most extreme midnight combination of heat and humidity.
• Ottawa posted its most extreme combination of heat and humidity on Sunday.
Excessive heat torched the British Isles late last week. The stifling heat caused roads and roofs to buckle, the Weather Channel reported, and resulted in multiple record highs:
• Scotland provisionally set its hottest temperature on record. The UK Met Office reported Motherwell, about 20km southeast of Glasgow, hit 33.2C on Thursday, passing the previous record set in August 2003 at Greycrook. Additionally, Glasgow had its hottest day on record, hitting 31.9.
• In Ireland, on Thursday, Shannon hit 32C, its record.
• In Northern Ireland, Belfast hit 29.5C on Thursday, its record, and Castlederg hit 30.1C on Friday, its record
A large dome of high pressure, or heat dome, has persistently sat on top of Eurasia over the past week, resulting in some extraordinarily hot weather:
• In Tbilisi, Georgia, on Wednesday, the capital city soared to 40.5C, its all-time record.
• In Yerevan, Armenia, on Monday, the capital city soared to 42C, a record high for July and tying its record for any month.
So how do his claims stack up?
You will note that Samenow likes to quote big city sites, which are heavily affected by UHI. The record of 105F was registered at Denver International Airport, according to NWS.
Yet the all-time State record temperatures for Colorado were set in 1933 and 1954, long before Denver International Airport was opened in 1995.
In fact, if we check all the US State records, we find that the vast majority were set in the 1930s. Only two occur this century, S Carolina and S Dakota, and the latter only ties 1936 anyway.
It is extremely dishonest to use heavily UHI affected sites to claim temperatures are increasing because of global warming.
For Montreal, read Denver, except the temperature reading was in the city itself, rather than the airport, which would make UHI worse still.
As with the US, nearly all of Canada’s all time state records occurred in the 1930s.
There is no coincidence about this. The infamous heatwaves of the dustbowl years were not simply localised events over a couple of summers, as is sometimes suggested. They affected most of North America throughout the decade.
Samenow talks dramatically about “heatdomes”, but these are simply areas of high pressure. As Environment Canada explained in a previous heatwave in 2011:
“The heat dome phenomenon happens every few summers.”
And if he wants to blame single weather events on global warming, he might like to explain why Montreal suffered its coldest February in history – just three years ago.
UK & Ireland
As we know, that “Scottish record temperature claim” has had to be withdrawn, much to the embarrassment of alarmists.
In England, the CET series showed last month as only the 10th warmest June, with the hottest occurring as long ago as 1846.
The highest temperature in N Ireland was 30.1C, well below the record of 30.8C set in 1976 and 1983.
As for Ireland, Shannon International Airport may have set a record of 32C, confirmed by the Ireland Met Office as the highest temperature anywhere in the country last month. But this was also well below the all-time record at Kilkenny in 1887, not to mention the 20thC record of 32.5C in 1976.
Samenow also quotes records at a couple of places in Asia, but both Tblisi and Yerevan, which he refers to, have both expanded massively in recent decades, both in terms of population and infrastructure.
Yerevan, for instance, has an estimated population of 1.1m, five times the size in 1939. The temperature is measured slap bang in the middle of an extremely built up city.
Tblisi too has grown in leaps and bounds, with population rising from 500K in 1939 to an estimated 1.5m now.
Nobody would deny that there has been a lot of hot weather around in the UK, US and doubtless other places lately.
But they are certainly not unprecedented, and temperatures have been consistently well below other notoriously hot summers in the past.
To pretend that city and airport sites, where UHI artificially raises temperatures significantly, are representative of some sort of new climate is junk science, which meteorologists like Jason Samenow should be ashamed of peddling.
AFRICA’S HOTTEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED WAS PROBABLY ‘INFLUENCED BY MAN-MADE OBJECTS’
The media is reporting an Algerian oil town in the middle of the Sahara Desert likely set an all-time record-high temperature for Africa, but a closer look at the weather station that made the reading suggests it may not be very reliable.
The town of Ouargla’s “124.3-degree temperature surpassed Africa’s previous highest reliable temperature measurement of 123.3 degrees (50.7 Celsius) set July 13, 1961, in Morocco,” The Washington Post’s Capital Weather Gang reported.
Ouargla “is probably the highest temperature ever reliably measured both in Algeria and in all of Africa,” the Weather Gang reported Friday. Ouargla’s temperature record was recorded on Thursday. Ouargla’s record hasn’t been made official by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
The WMO certifies temperature records after carefully scrutinizing whether or not the weather station where the record occurred was unduly influenced by non-climatic factors, like artificial heat sources.
For example, the U.K. Met Office rejected a record-high temperature reading of 91.8 degrees Fahrenheit in Motherwell, Scotland recorded on June 28. Officials rejected the reading because an ice cream truck idling nearby may have contaminated the temperature reading that day.
However, Weather Gang used Ouargla’s purported temperature record as an examples of how humans were warming the world. Environmentalists also joined in to sound the alarm on global warming.
Africa, which has done almost nothing to cause global warming, is now recording its hottest temperatures ever https://t.co/5WFPczZjPU
— Bill McKibben (@billmckibben) July 6, 2018
Interestingly enough, Ouargla’s record heat might be man-made, but not in the way most reporters would admit.
For starters, there was a six degree difference between the record-high reading and weather models. Cato Institute atmospheric scientist Ryan Maue noted the discrepancy on Twitter.
My ECMWF based maps zoomed on Algeria showed a high of 117-118°F
I'm skeptical of an ob 6°F above the model grids but will look for other evidence.
— Ryan | weather.us (@RyanMaue) July 6, 2018
The Daily Caller News Foundation decided to look into it, and with the help of meteorologist Anthony Watts found the weather station was located at Ain Beida Airport about four miles southeast of Ouargla.
Airports tend to run hotter than surrounding areas because of runways, jet wash from airplanes, vehicles exhaust and other non-natural factors that can artificially raise temperatures, creating a heat island relative to the surrounding area.
“It’s not the right place to measure climate,” Watts, publisher of the popular science blog Watts Up With That, told TheDCNF. “It’s not climatologically representative.”
There aren’t a lot of photos of Ain Beida Airport since it doubles as a military airport, but Watts narrowed down the location of the airport’s weather station to a plot in the northeast corner.
Watts combed through the data and found a south-southwest wind was blowing as the record-high temperature was recorded, meaning it had to cross the tarmac, suggesting possible contamination.
“Airports are NOT good places to measure climate change or even record highs/lows,” Watts wrote in a blog post on the subject.
“Why? they are dynamic places; jet exhaust, changing infrastructure, and constant energy use. Just look at the small area for the jet above, it has to make a 360 rotation and that spews jet exhaust everywhere,” Watts wrote.
“In my view, this temperature record should be disqualified as being influenced by man-made objects, just like the Ice Cream truck parked next to the weather station in Scotland,” Watts wrote.
Summer Causes Climate Change Hysteria
Summers in the U.S. are hot. They always have been. Some are hotter than others.
Speaking as a PhD meteorologist with 40 years experience, this week’s heat wave is nothing special.
But judging from the memo released on June 22 by Public Citizen (a $17 million per year liberal/progressive consumer rights advocacy grouporiginally formed by Ralph Nader in 1971 and heavily funded by Leftwing billionaire George Soros’s Open Society Foundations), every heat wave must now be viewed as a reminder of human-caused climate change. The memo opines that (believe it or not) the news media have not been very good about linking weather events to climate change, which is leading to complacency among the public.
The June 22 memo focus was on the excessive heat in New York state, so let’s begin our journey down Hysteria Lane there. The official NOAA average maximum temperatures for every June since 1895 in New York looks like this:
The long term trend is not statistically different from zero. June 2018 is not yet available at the NOAA website, but from what I’ve seen for the global June Climate Forecast System map at WeatherBell.com, it looks like it was near the long-term (20th Century) average.
The memo also made mention of the widespread record warmth the U.S. experienced in May, 2018. New York had it’s 7th warmest May on record this year, and the long-term linear warming trend there since 1895 is weak (0.22 F/decade) and not statistically different from zero at the 95% confidence level. The May warmth in the U.S. was regional, as expected for weather variations, with much of Canada being exceedingly cold:
When do you suppose the hottest temperature ever recorded in New York was? Clearly, with global warming, it must be in the last 20 or 30 years, right?
It was 109 deg. F. on July 22, 1926 in Troy, New York. In contrast, the state record for the coldest temperature was much more recent: -52 deg. F on Feb 18, 1979, at Old Forge, New York.
What about this week’s heat wave? Let’s look at NOAA’s GFS forecast model 5-day average temperatures for this week (Monday through Friday, July 2-6, 2018, graphic from WeatherBell.com):
As you can see, the excessive heat is (again) regionally isolated, which is exactly what we expect for weather… not for climate change. See those colder than average areas? Why aren’t those being blamed on climate change, too? They look like they approximately cancel out the warm area over the Northeast U.S., which is often the case for weather (not climate change) variations.
That was a 5-day forecast for this week. Next let’s look at what was actually observed over the last couple days (July 1-2), which were very hot in the Great Lakes and Northeast:
What we see is that there were unseasonably cool temperatures in the western U.S., again an indication of a temporary and localized weather pattern… not “global warming”, which would be warm everywhere.
How about extreme high temperatures in the U.S in general? Here are the yearly total number of days above 100 and 105 deg. F, again for the years 1895 through 2017, based upon official NOAA data:
We see no trend in the number of days with excessive heat.
So, what do we make of the claims in the Public Citizen memo? Well, they mention that we have seen 1.1 deg. C of warming since the Industrial Revolution. Think about that. Less than 2 deg. F warming in about 200 years, part of which is likely to be natural, based upon temperature proxy estimates over the last 2,000 years for the Northern Hemisphere:
Am I claiming that there is no such thing as human-caused warming? No. I’m claiming that it is overblown. The Public Citizen memo makes much of recent record warm years clustering together, which sounds alarming — if one doesn’t mention the small fractions of a degree involved. If there was no natural year-to-year variability, and the temperature was increasing at 0.01 or 0.02 deg. F every year, then every successive year would be a record warm year…but who would care? The rate of ‘global warming’ is too weak for any one person to notice in their lifetime.
Furthermore, we already know the climate models (which are the basis for proposed changes in energy policy to get us away from fossil fuels) are producing generally twice as much warming of the atmosphere-ocean system as has been observed. The most recent energy budget analysis of surface and deep-ocean warming suggests that the climate system is only half as sensitive to our CO2 emissions as you are being told…. maybe 1.5 deg. C of eventual warming from a doubling of atmospheric CO2. At 410 ppm, We are currently half way to doubling.
And even THAT reduced estimate of future warming assumes ALL of the warming is human-caused! If a portion of recent warming is natural, the less the human-caused global warming problem becomes.
Finally, the Public Citizen memo claims that today’s technology would already allow 80% to 100% of our energy to come from renewable sources. This is patently false. Solar and wind are relatively diffuse (and thus expensive) sources of energy which are intermittent, requiring fossil fuel (or nuclear) backup. It would be exceedingly expensive to get even 50% of our energy from such sources. Maybe someday we will have such technologies, but until that day arrives, the massive amount of money that would be required to achieve such a goal would worsen poverty, which historically has been the leading cause of premature death in the world.
But temperature is not going up, it’s below 1987 and way, way below 1936
UAH Global Temperature Update for June, 2018: +0.21 deg. C
The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for June, 2018 was +0.21 deg. C, up a little from the May value of +0.18 deg. C:
Global area-averaged lower tropospheric temperature anomalies (departures from 30-year calendar monthly means, 1981-2010). The 13-month centered average is meant to give an indication of the lower frequency variations in the data; the choice of 13 months is somewhat arbitrary… an odd number of months allows centered plotting on months with no time lag between the two plotted time series. The inclusion of two of the same calendar months on the ends of the 13 month averaging period causes no issues with interpretation because the seasonal temperature cycle has been removed, and so has the distinction between calendar months. More …