Before reading the article, look at the latest temperature data:
As we can see, the temperature now is cooler than the top in 1987 .. Remember that when you read the articles below.
By Arutz Sheva
Climate change may render the Gulf states and North Africa unlivable, NBC News reported.
According to Egyptian Meteorological Authority representative Ashraf Zaki, the past three summers have been among the hottest recorded, and humidity levels have risen, along with the number of heat waves.
Temperatures in the region regularly hit 35-37.8 degrees Celsius (95-100 degrees Fahrenheit), and in July, Algeria hit 51.3 degrees Celsius (124.34 degrees Fahrenheit).
In addition to the heat, Alexandria Research Center for Adaptation to Climate Change Director Mohamed Abdrabo noted that the rising sea level is causing the Nile Delta, as well as other Mediterranean areas, to become “inundated” by a sea level rise, flooding the area and bringing in salt water.
Abdrabo also noted that the change is gradual, and therefore barely noticed.
NBC News added that the United Arab Emirates established its Ministry of Change and Environment, aiming to reduce its carbon footprint by 70% and double its contribution of clean energy by 2050.
The Ministry’s assistant undersecretary, Fahed Alhammadi, pointed out that the country’s heat had surpassed 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit) and nearly reached 50 degrees (122 Fahrenheit).
“We are now developing scenarios where we need to start to review our own regulations and law. We need to start monitoring diseases associated with temperature increase in order to bring these figures down,” he told NBC News.
Harald Heubaum, who serves as a global energy and climate policy expert at London’s School of African and Oriental Studies, said combatting climate change is “economically feasible.”
“We have the solutions; we know technologically what we need to do,” he emphasized.
Ref.: https://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/250449
BBC touts new climate model, saying next few years ‘may be exceptionally warm’
From the “worse than we thought” department comes this new climate model, but at least they acknowledge the pause.
The next few years could be “anomalously warm”, according to a new study.
Researchers have developed a mathematical model to predict how average global surface air temperatures will vary over the next few years.
The results suggest that the period from 2018 to 2022 could see an increased likelihood of extreme temperatures.
The findings are published in the journal Nature Communications.
The warming caused by emissions of greenhouse gases like CO2 is not increasing at a perfectly steady rate.
In the early years of the 21st Century, scientists pointed to a hiatus in warming. But several analyses show that the five warmest years on record all have taken place since 2010.
These variations from year-to-year do not affect the long-term trend in warming temperatures.
Now, a new method for trying to predict global temperatures suggests the next few years will be hotter than expected.
Rather than using traditional climate simulation techniques, Florian Sévellec, from the CNRS in Brest, France, and Sybren S Drijfhout, from the University of Southampton, developed a statistical method to search through simulations of climatic conditions in the 20th and 21st Century and look for situations that are comparable to the present day.
Future possibilities
The team then used these climatic “analogues” to deduce future possibilities.
In particular, the anomalous warmth predicted over the next few years is due to a low probability of intense cold climatic events.
Once the algorithm is “learned” (a process which takes a few minutes), predictions are obtained in a few hundredths of a second on a laptop. In comparison, supercomputers require a week using traditional simulation methods.
Gabi Hegerl, professor of climate system science at the University of Edinburgh, who was not involved with the study, said: “The authors have tried to predict whether global climate variability will make the next years warmer or cooler overall than the mean warming trend. They have skilfully used worldwide climate model data for previous years to calculate probabilities for the next few years.
“The findings suggest it’s more likely we’ll get warmer years than expected in the next few years.
Full article here
As noted further in the article, the result is “purely statistical”, so take it with a grain of salt, because I suspect the “learning” part of the algorithm doesn’t handle long-term natural variation well at all, just like the short term memory of humans often can’t recall the intensity of weather events in the far past. Of course, humans programmed this, so…
UPDATE: Here’s the paper:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-05442-8
A novel probabilistic forecast system predicting anomalously warm 2018-2022 reinforcing the long-term global warming trend
Abstract
In a changing climate, there is an ever-increasing societal demand for accurate and reliable interannual predictions. Accurate and reliable interannual predictions of global temperatures are key for determining the regional climate change impacts that scale with global temperature, such as precipitation extremes, severe droughts, or intense hurricane activity, for instance. However, the chaotic nature of the climate system limits prediction accuracy on such timescales. Here we develop a novel method to predict global-mean surface air temperature and sea surface temperature, based on transfer operators, which allows, by-design, probabilistic forecasts. The prediction accuracy is equivalent to operational forecasts and its reliability is high. The post-1998 global warming hiatus is well predicted. For 2018–2022, the probabilistic forecast indicates a warmer than normal period, with respect to the forced trend. This will temporarily reinforce the long-term global warming trend. The coming warm period is associated with an increased likelihood of intense to extreme temperatures. The important numerical efficiency of the method (a few hundredths of a second on a laptop) opens the possibility for real-time probabilistic predictions carried out on personal mobile devices.
Ref.: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/08/14/bbc-touts-new-climate-model-saying-next-few-years-may-be-exceptionally-warm/
