Now French Scientist Trashes Greenhouse Gas Theory

By Camille Veyres

The Co2-driven radiative greenhouse gas theory can be demonstrated to be a fraud. A fresh analysis of the statistical trickery and misrepresentation of the physical properties of this benign trace atmospheric gas are examined herein.

(1) The amount of carbon dioxide in the air in a consequence of the surface temperatures of the inter-tropical zone where most of the out-gassing takes place; it is a consequence (an integral over time) of past temperatures, and hence cannot cause the temperatures; 6% of the CO2 of the air is anthropogenic and 94% from natural out-gassing.

(2) The so-called greenhouse effect exists only in vacuum and cannot exist in the atmosphere neither on Earth nor on Venus: a polytropic relation between pressure and temperature explains the surface temperatures; the Earth’s atmosphere is, due to its water vapor, extremely opaque to thermal infrared and cannot carry heat radiatively outside the water vapor window; the thermal infrared radiation of the troposphere (90% of that of the globe) is controlled by the water vapor content at say 300 mbar; changes of the carbon dioxide content of the air have no effect because water vapor is in control.

Carbon cycle:
Carbon dioxide is exchanged between oceans (39000 Gt-C), air (850 Gt-C) and vegetation and soils (2500 Gt-C) (figure 6-1 of IPCC-AR5-WG1). Cumulative anthropogenic emissions since 1751, 430 Gt-C, are about one percent of the total. Each year one fifth of the CO2 of the air is absorbed (discounting the daily respiration of the vegetation) by cold surface oceans (80 Gt-C/yr) and by plants (90 Gt-C/yr). From 1900 to 1999 the global terrestrial photosynthetic
primary production increased by 30% [1] as did the absorption by oceans; IPCC figure 6-1 underestimate by a factor three the exchange of carbon between surface ocean and deep ocean.

Fact 1: The partial pressure of the carbon dioxide in sea water is driven by the temperatures and increases by 3.6 times between the border of the ice pack (200 µatm) that sucks CO2 from the air (400 µatm) and the inter-tropical zone (600 µatm) which belches CO2 into the air.

Frauds and obfuscations: Revelle’s 1965 report [2], Bolin’s papers of the 1960s and IPCC use two main tricks to exclude oceans from the carbon cycle and to conceal the effect of temperatures; with only air and vegetation (no soils!) left, half of fossil fuel stays forever in the atmosphere (the “airborne fraction”) and half in vegetation. Trick 1: They say there is almost no exchange of carbon between the surface ocean (900 Gt-C) and the deep ocean (Revelle 1965: no exchange; IPCC 1990: 35 and 37 Gt-C/yr; IPCC 2013: 90 and 101 GtC/yr).

Trick 2: Revelle’s equation dpCO2/ pCO2 = {8 to 12} d DIC/DIC is said to describe a static “equilibrium” between air and surface ocean.

Fact 2: Quote from [3]: at temperate latitudes the subduction of dissolved inorganic carbon DIC and to a lesser extent the sinking particles maintain CO2 under-saturation, and hence absorption of carbon dioxide from the air. In the tropical band and in the Southern Ocean Dissolved Inorganic Carbon is obducted back to the surface. The 275 Giga ton per year supply by obduction and the 265 gigaton per year removal by subduction are 3 to 5 times larger than previous estimates.

Comments: Revelle’s equation or “buffer factor” applies in a bottle with sea water and air but cannot be used globally: ocean water is moving, has surface temperatures between -1.5°C and 33°C and the carbon of the surface ocean is renewed continuously by intertropical obduction and middle latitude subduction.

Fact 3: the CO2 content of the air is a consequence of past intertropical temperatures, their time-integral. See figure above: the time derivative of the ppm in grey, a linear function of the intertropical UAH-MSU temperature anomaly AT(t) in yellow-green. Hence d[CO2] (t)/dt = 1.7 (AT(t) – (-0,8°C)). Unit root tests on time-series (Dickey Fuller) require the ppm curve to be derived once w.r.t. time before attempting a correlation with the temperatures.

The autocorrelation functions of times series “AT(t)” and “increments at Mauna Loa” are completely different of that of “anthropogenic emissions”. Subtraction of linear trends from the time series of the Mauna Loa increments and of the anthropogenic emissions kills any fictious (common “trend”) correlation: R² = 0.014 [see professor Munshi’s papers].

Hence the ppm are the integral over time of the temperature anomaly of the intertropical zone where outgassing takes place, a consequence of past temperatures; CO2 ppm cannot control the temperature.

Fact 4: As one fifth of the CO2 content of the air is absorbed every year, the carbon content of the air y(t) is a solution of dy/dt = f(t) – y(t)/5 or y(t) = 5 f(t) – 5 dy/dt, with f(t) input. This applies to both components, the natural and the anthropogenic (f(t) = 10 Gt-C/yr) parts of the carbon of the air.

The anthropogenic component of the air is 5 yr x 10 Gt-C/yr – 5 yr 0,4 Gt-C/yr = 48 Gt-C = 23 ppm or 6%; the component from natural outgassing is 94%. The natural outgassing, since 1958, went up from 62 ppm/yr to almost 80 ppm/yr, while anthropogenic emissions went from 1 ppm/yr to 4.5 ppm/yr. Natural climate cycles drive the temperature that drive the natural outgassing, that provides today’s 94% of the CO2 of the air, and the total CO2 of the air drives the absorption, always (1/5) of it.

Fact 5: 13C is 1000 ((13C/12C) /0,0112372 – 1), a linear function of the ratio of the number of atoms 13C and
12C; the 13C of fossil fuels reflects the changing mix of coal, oil and gas; today, only 6% of the atmospheric carbon dioxide is anthropogenic: 6% (-30) + 94% (-7.1) = (-8.5) is the observed 13C.

The naturally outgassed carbon (green curve) has the 13C signature of the ambient air some sixty years before; it displays some ups and downs because during El Niños, more carbon with a more negative 13C
is released; the 13C of the CO2 in sea water is about 1.5 per mil below that of the air.

Deceptions and frauds: see IPCC FAR (1990) page 14, § 1.2.5 and IPCC AR4 p 139.

Deceptions and frauds: Bern and Hamburg impulse responses: A compartment model is a set of linear equations solved by Laplace transform; its impulse response is a weighted sum of exponential time decays, with, here, eight free parameters tuned to make the convolution of the impulse response with the time series of anthropogenic emissions look like a heavily massaged version of Mauna Loa ppm, with a 100 years 1/e decay time.

This is based on the A PRIORI hypothesis that all change of ppm is from fossil fuels. The impulse response for a “airborne fraction” of 50% of fossil fuels that remains forever in the air is half a Dirac! Those tales have been debunked by observations: the doubling of the production of coal between 2000 and 2010 with +40% on anthropogenic emissions had no visible change on the derivative or slope of the Mauna-Loa ppm (grey line on figure above) . In the 2013 IPCC reports, Bern formula disappeared from the WG1 report, but was still used by WG3.

Fact 6: The +31% large historical growth in terrestrial gross primary production during the XXth century is in line with the observed acceleration of the forest stand growth dynamics in central Europe since 1870. [prof. Pretzsch]. Hence, during the XXth century, the +700 GtC of the vegetation and soil compartment and the + 220 Gt-C of the atmosphere came from 400 Gt-C released by fossil fuels and 520 Gt-C released by the oceans. The non-linear transfer of carbon from oceans to vegetation and soils was properly discussed in 1956 by Eriksson & Welander, a decade before Revelle’ report.

Fact 7: The deep ocean carbon turnover time seems to be one or two centuries (270 Gt-C / yr obducted and subducted divided by 38000 Gt-C or by part of it). 60 meters of ice divided by Antarctic precipitations of 5 mm per year is 10 000 years. On a slice of ice-core the paths between different bubbles in the slice and the surface, say 80 meters above, close at different times due to the progressive and random closing of the pores in the firn. The moving-average time smoothing over millennia removes all trace of the oceanic century-long carbon cycles in the deep ocean.

Hence ice cores cannot record century long changes of carbon dioxide in the air; their records below 300 ppm are a consequence of the time averaging by the physics of the closing of the pores. More: splicing the heavily time averaged ice core data to Mauna Loa instantaneous data is a fraud.

Water vapor and elementary atmospheric physics:
Fact 8: The simple diabatic model d’Q= Ch dT and the barometric relation prove the polytropic relation T(P)/T(P0) = (P/P0) R/(Cp- Ch) in the troposphere and the equivalent gravitational g/(Cp- Ch) temperature lapse rate. On Earth 288 K = 223 K + 10 km x 6,5 K/km = 223 K (1 atm /0,26 atm)0,19 while on Venus 735 K = 230 K + 63 km x 8 K/km = 230 K (92 atm /0,1 atm)0,17

Frauds and obfuscations: Radiative heat trapping? No! The tropospheric temperature is an effect of the pressure! A runaway greenhouse effect on Venus? No! It is a straight consequence of the mass of the air, one thousand tons per square meter and of the polytropic relation. There is almost no light from the Sun on the surface of Venus.

The diabatic curve above in black is warmer than the green adiabatic; water vapor absorbs solar infrared and releases heat by condensation. The tropospheric water vapor and the clouds provide the bulk of the global thermal radiation almost 200 W/m²; the top or skin of water vapor that radiates from the troposphere toward the cosmos is fed by evaporation-condensation and by convection, not-at-all by radiation from the surface. Stratospheric CO2 and ozone radiate the heat of solar UV absorbed by stratospheric oxygen and ozone. Surface-to-cosmos: 22 W/m² [4] only
escape absorption by water vapor and clouds.

Frauds and obfuscations: the surface is a blackbody (No! Kiehl & Trenberth schemes overestimate by 10% the thermal radiation from the surface); solar heat is released by thermal infrared emission of the surface (No! Only some 22 W/m² of 160 W/m²); the back-radiation of the air warms the surface (No! A heat transfer by thermal infrared radiation between A and B is: (radiated by A and absorbed by B) minus (radiated by B and absorbed by A) with is about zero between surface and air)

Fact 9: There exist a greenhouse effect, but only in vacuum! On the Moon, under the pane with Sun at the zenith, the surface temperature would increase by some 75°C. But on Earth, the turbulent air with water vapor is an excellent heat pipe that carries heat from the surface to the top layer of the tropospheric water vapor; as water vapor is quite opaque the radiative net balance is zero between surface (A) and air (B).

Fact 10: A pellicle or skin of optical thickness 1.07 transmits 20% and absorbs 80% of the incoming thermal infrared; hence it produces about 80% of the thermal infrared radiated by the body. The water vapor window from 28 THz to 39 THz is often closed by clouds. For an optical thickness of 100 and 30 kg/m², a layer or skin of 300 grams of water vapor, 1 km thick near 9 km and 40 m thick near the surface is the source of 80% of the radiation from the atmosphere.

The lower limit of the radiating layer or skin is pictured in blue for water vapor, red for today’s CO2 ppm, brown for doubled CO2. CO2 radiates from the stratosphere except near 18.4 THz and near 21.6 THz. Doubling the CO2 content of the air pushes the radiating pellicle upward around those two absorption lines from 350 mbar to say 250 mbar, from red to brown, hence a “higher and cooler” effect in the troposphere, that reduces the OLR by some 1.6 W/m² for a test-profile, less than one percent of the water vapor tropospheric OLR.

The blue curve shows that between 200 mbar and 400 mbar water vapor radiates over about 40 THz, almost 40 times the band of tropospheric CO2 at the same altitude.

Frauds and deceptions: There exist a radiative forcing of 2.5 W/m² from a decreasing OLR due to more CO2 in the air. 93% of it goes into the oceans

Comments: OLR observed from satellites increased since 1979 by 1.1 W/m²/decade; Ocean Heat Content increases by some 0.25 W/m² since the 1970s. Radiative forcing is like the new clothes of the Emperor, made from nothing: no chemical reaction, no nuclear reaction, only by quackery.

Fact 11: The Water vapor content of the air near 300 millibar is dynamic, extremely variable and regulates the Outgoing Longwave Radiation of the globe; the relative humidity is there from 20% to 50%. It wipes out in hours or days any tropospheric effect of more CO2 in the air.

[1] J. E. Campbell et al. Large historical growth in global terrestrial gross primary production
Nature volume 544, pages84–87 (06 April 2017)
published by the White House Washington DC Nov. 1965
[3] M. Levy et al. 2013, Physical pathways for carbon transfers between the surface mixed layer and
the ocean interior, Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 27, 1001–1012, doi:10.1002/gbc.20092
[4] Costa S.M.S., Shine K.P. Outgoing Longwave Radiation due to Directly Transmitted Surface
Emission J. Atmospheric Sciences, vol. 69, 2012 pp. 1865-1870

The above content is compiled from the original presentation, ‘Eleven facts you must know to avoid being deceived by the AGW’ author, Camille Veyres, the Porto Climate Conference 2018 September 7 and 8, at Porto University (Porto, 2018)