By Michael Bastasch
- New evidence suggests climate model predictions are way off when it comes to the Gulf Stream.
- Scientists warned global warming could halt the Atlantic’s “conveyor belt” and plunge temperatures.
- However, observational data contradicts this alarming prediction and suggests climate models are wrong.
New evidence casts further doubt on model-based predictions that global warming could halt the Gulf Stream currents as part of an alarming scenario that inspired the 2004 disaster film, “The Day After Tomorrow.”
For years, scientists warned global warming could halt the Atlantic’s “conveyor belt” and foment extreme weather and raise sea levels from North America to Europe. That prediction is based on climate models that, the new study found, may be analyzing the wrong thing.
“Some of these models are producing five times the amount of Labrador Sea water they should be producing, based on observations,” lead author Susan Lozier, a professor at Duke University, told The Washington Post Friday.
Lozier’s study found that climate models overestimate the role of the Labrador Sea west of Greenland in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). The study found the Nordic Sea east of Greenland played a dominant role in the AMOC.
Lozier led an international effort to measure AMOC in the North Atlantic. Scientists from 16 organizations launched the Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program (OSNAP) in 2014, and now released data collected during the first 21 months of operations.
Some researchers cautioned that 21 months of data is too sparse to draw firm conclusions, but that, if these results hold, it would be a dramatic change in our understanding of how the AMOC works.
Observational data is available for the Gulf Stream closer to the U.S., which brings warm water north. A 2014 study examining actual measurements taken off the U.S. coast found “absolutely no evidence that suggests that the Gulf Stream is slowing down,” its lead author said.
The AMOC is like a conveyor belt that brings warm, salty water north towards Greenland where it’s mixed with fresher cold water. As the water cools, it sinks and influences the climate and regional weather patterns.
Polar ice melt and enhanced rainfall is putting more cold, fresher water into the Labrador Sea, reducing salinity and disrupting the key current, some scientists say. Climate models generally predict warming will weaken the AMOC, but observational evidence has been scant.
Indeed, a 2018 study claimed of a “tipping point” in the coming decades whereby the AMOC could shutdown completely. That study analyzed sea surface temperatures since the mid-19th Century, but did not collect any field data on the AMOC.
“The specific trend pattern we found in measurements looks exactly like what is predicted by computer simulations as a result of a slowdown in the Gulf Stream System, and I see no other plausible explanation for it,” scientist Stefan Rahmstorf, one of the 2018 study’s authors, said in a statement last year.
A second 2018 study used proxy data, not observational evidence, to claim the AMOC had become “anomalously weak over the past 150 years or so” in comparison to the previous 1,500 years.
Former Vice President Al Gore featured that prediction in his 2006 film “An Inconvenient Truth,” and it also formed the premise of the 2004 blockbuster disaster film “The Day after Tomorrow.”
However, many scientists were skeptical of the studies since neither relied on observational evidence. Lozier’s study provides further evidence that climate models may be wrong on more than just temperature rise.
“I think that’s one big take-home message from our study, is that these previous papers that have discussed that are almost like barking up the wrong tree,” Bob Pickart, an oceanographer and a co-author of the study, told ScienceNews.
The Jeff Poor Show (1-30-19) Climate Depot’s Marc Morano joins the show to discuss his new book and common hoax’s of climate change
Climate Depot’s Marc Morano joins the show to discuss his new book and common hoax’s of climate change
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Munich Conference: Leading Danish Astrophysicist Says Solar Activity Has Significant Impact On Global Climate
Danish Professor Henrik Svensmark is a leading physicist of cosmic radiation. At the end of last year he made a presentation at the 12th International Climate Conference in Munich, where he demonstrated that the climate is indeed modulated in large part by cloud cover, which in turn is modulated by solar activity in combination with cosmic rays.
His theory is that cosmic rays, which are extremely fast-flying particles – which originate from dying supernovae – travel through the cosmos, strike the Earth’s atmosphere and have a major impact on cloud cover and thus climate on the Earth’s surface.
This, Svensmark says, has been confirmed in numerous laboratory experiments.
Observations and proxy data show that “when you have high cosmic rays, you have a cold climate” because of greater cloud cover. According Svensmark, the net effect of clouds is to cool the Earth by up to 30 W/m2.
Clouds are extremely important for the Earth’s energy budget. The net effect is about 20 to 30 watts per square meter.”
That figure is great in terms of impact on climate change, and it is grossly neglected by CO2-fixated climate scientists.
His research shows there is clear link between low cloud cover formation and galactic cosmic rays:
Sun modulates the cosmic ray intensity hitting the Earth’s atmosphere
In his presentation (see video) he explains the mechanism of how the cosmic rays seed low level clouds, which act to cool the climate. In periods of intense solar activity, the sun’s magnetic field engulfs and shields the Earth’s atmosphere from the cloud-seeding cosmic rays, thus less low level clouds are formed and the Earth warms.
Vice versa, i.e. during periods of low solar activity, the sun’s magnetic field is weaker, and so more cosmic rays are able to penetrate into the atmosphere and seed clouds. The resulting clouds act to cool the planet.
Confirmed by experiments
Svensmark’s experiments confirm that solar cycles impact energy changes in the oceans by an order of 1.5 W/m2 over an 11-year cycle and that his findings are consistent with climate changes over the Holocene and even geological times going back more than 100 million years.
Over geological history, especially when the Earth traveled through one of the spiral arms of the Milky Way, cosmic rays striking the atmosphere were very intense and thus led to extremely cold conditions known as the Snowball Earth episodes. Other scientists insist the episodes were caused by intense volcanic eruptions.
Significant solar changes in Earth’s energy budget
Dr. Svensmark summarizes the solar activity/cosmic ray climate modulation system with the following chart:
In the end, changes in solar activity lead to significant changes in the earth’s energy budget, and thus climate change, Svensmark believes. This explains why the Earth has seen “coolings and warmings of around 2°C repeatedly over the past 10,000 years.”
The Sun became unusually active during the 20th Century and as a result part of the ‘global warming’ observed.”