By Roger Higgs DPhil Oxford
New study by respected Oxford-trained (DPhil) international geological consultant relying on archaeological, astrophysical, geological and palaeoclimatological data covering the last 2,000 years shows it is the Sun, not CO2, that controls global temperature.
Dr Roger Higgs DPhil (geology, Oxford, 1982-86), Geoclastica Ltd, UK, Technical Note 2020-1, 13th Jan 2020 writes:
Only key citations are given; please email for others. A cross-match between graphs of the Sun’s output and Earth’s mean surface temperature is obvious at two scales: (1) the last 2,000 years (2ky), represented by proxies (PAGES2k 2017 temperatures; Vieira et al. 2011 cosmogenic isotopes), both graphs being ‘hockey sticks’ with decadal ‘sawteeth’; and (2) the last 250y (Berkeley temperature compilation; Chatzistergos et al. 2017 sunspotgroup numbers).
In both cases, temperature clearly lags the Sun’s output by 80-120y, aligning: (A) the sawteeth;
(B) the ~1820AD and ~1700AD temperature- and solar minima (Little Ice Age nadir); (C) ensuing ‘modern warming’ and solar buildup to the modern solar Grand Maximum (GM; 1937-2004), strongest in 2ky; and (D) the next-strongest GM ~275-345AD and, tellingly, the ~400-450 warmest half-century (except post-1950?; Pages2k fig7a,b,c). Undeniably the Sun drives global temperature (Svensmark solar-magnetic/cloudiness link?).
In turn, sea level (SL; post-1700 tide-gauges) closely cross-matches temperature, SL lagging ~20y. Both lags probably reflect ocean thermal inertia and ‘conveyor-belt’ circulation (downwelled solar-heated North Atlantic water eventually upwells at Antarctica, affecting glacier flow rate into the ocean, hence SL). A sharp SL rise of 2-3m in only ~100y ~350-450AD reached ~1.5m above today’s SL.
This rise, sandwiched between SL falls of ~2m in ~200y, is Godwin’s (1943) ‘Romano-British transgression’ (RBT), aka Dunkirk II (Low Countries, explaining ~410-450AD Frisian-Anglo-Saxon exodus to Britain), St Firmin (France), Gilbert V (Pacific) and Wulfert (USA). Fairbridge’s updated (1976) Holocene SL compilation shows this oscillation (and others, likewise correlatable to solar GMs), verified by many later geological and archaeological studies. (Note also Blanchon et al. 2009 last-interglacial ~3m rise in <50y.)
A glacio-eustatic origin, not glacio-hydro-isostatic, is indicated by RBT’s rapidity, great latitudinal span and associated global warming ~400AD (above). I suggest upwelling ‘GM-overwarmed’ water unleashed a Marine Ice-Sheet- and/or Ice-Cliff Instability event. Indeed, Antarctic seabed corrugations and cross-cutting iceberg ploughmarks suggest recent collapse of Antarctica’s ice-sheet snout (overhanging the grounding line) after the buttressing ice-shelf fragmented (Wise et al. 2017 fig 4; “ice apocalypse” of Goodell 2017).
If correct, the last such event made the grounding line recede behind its present position and occurred <11ky ago (Graham et al. 2013). This timing accords with the ~350-450 RBT; moreover Antarctic sea-surface temperature increased ~4°C in <100y ~300AD (Shevenell et al. 2011 fig 3d).
CONCLUSIONS: (1) Modern warming coincides with rising CO2 accidentally; (2) warming will continue until ~2090, lagging ~100y behind the modern solar GM’s 1991 magnetic peak (cosmicrays.oulu.fi); (3) the modern GM portends another rapid ~3m SL rise by ice collapse, starting by ~2040 and ending by ~2100 (NB currently increasing Antarctic ice-shelf bottom-water temperature, under-melting, grounding-line retreat and glacier velocity; and accelerating world SL rise); (4) IPCC (2014) assertions supposedly incriminating man’s CO2 emissions but disproven here include: (A) the Sun is unimportant in climate change; (B) Holocene SL was never higher than now; and (C) no SL oscillation of the previous 1700y exceeded 25cm (“medium confidence” only) until the ongoing ~30cm rise since 1700 (in fact RBT was ~10x greater, and averaged ~30x faster).
Download the PDF of the paper at www.researchgate.net