Today is election day, and there’s a lot of nervousness about the outcome. Relax, there’s more room for optimism if you dispatch the negativity. The media is “all in” for Hillary Clinton, and this comes as a surprise to who? Tune them out. All the variables that are non MSM related point toward a historic win for Donald Trump over the next 18 hours.
Vote. Help your family and friends to vote if needed. Lend car-pools or babysit, or whatever you can to turn your own energy into positive action – it will help you ignore the chattering class.
CTH is going to approach the election day the same way we have in each of the primary contests earlier this year. Nothing fancy, just steady and simple.
We believe in the KISS principle (Keep It Simple, Stupid):
♦ We will post threads for ground reports in two hour increments beginning at 10:00am Eastern Time Zone. Share your experience within your own community. How is the turnout? Wait Times? Excitement or lack thereof at your polling station… etc.
It is critical that everyone vote. Remember, historically there are two metrices that drive media narratives in the post election discussion. Each of these metrices have a different impact on Washington DC:
- The first is the electoral college, the actual victory.
- The second is the scope of victory within the popular vote.
Inasmuch as you/we are driving the electoral victory, the size of the popular vote will ensure the mandate. Even if you are in a deep blue area/region you are part of the building of that mandate. EVERY VOTE COUNTS.
With you voice amid the voices of millions of others we are sending a resounding message to the entire apparatus of the professional political class… even if they despise us in the hearing of it.
The scope of the collective vote is what will provide Donald Trump with the mandate to push YOUR common sense reforms in Washington DC. EVERY VOTE COUNTS.
♦ Do not be discouraged by media. Tune out the noise. Remember, they have corporate interests at stake in this election. The two years of enlightenment provided by Trump and WikiLeaks should give you a frame of reference to dismiss their manipulative efforts. Nothing will ever be the same again. The fourth estate had fundamentally destroyed itself and will never recover. Stay away from them as they thrash and drown in the sea of their own creation.
♦ Calm yourself and breathe. Before absorbing any information ask yourself if thinking about it provides nourishment or toxicity. If the latter, ignore it. Don’t spread negativity just because you are incapable of retaining your own sensibility or confidence.
♦ The media are notoriously predictable with exit polling, take all exit polling with a grain of salt. You will not see the CTH promote it. Just like “media polling” exit polling inherently carries the ideological bias of the outlet delivering the results. Exit polls are used by media to frame a narrative.
♦ Anticipate election day “gaslighting” from the same media. If a state result is close and Hillary is leading, they will call it for her. Conversely if Trump is leading a close result they will delay any calls benefitting him. The MSM intended objectives for doing this are just as obvious as they were in the primary. The media attempt to influence turnout in time zones by their method of calling races with earlier polling closes. When you know their techniques, you inoculate yourself from their manipulation.
♦ At approximately 5:00pm CTH will open “Election Results Discussion Threads” with links to some of the more user-friendly polling aggregates so you can check on status updates and discuss election results as they come in. There will be multiple Election night threads sequentially numbered.
♦ In February of this year we predicted somewhere between 130 and 150 million people would vote in the 2016 general election. Nothing has happened within the year to change that estimation.
- In 2012 127 million voted (65,915,795 Obama / 60,933,504 Romney).
- In 2008 129 million people voted (69,498,516 Obama / 59,948,323 McCain).
♦ Broadly speaking – We estimate that if 135 million vote (the most likely scenario), Donald Trump would carry approximately 73 million votes. We estimate that if 140 million vote, Trump will carry approximately 76 million. We estimate that if 150 million vote, Trump will carry approximately 79 million.
In the possible range of popular vote count scenarios we still anticipate a Donald Trump victory, the difference is the scale. Our specific prediction remains:
With high intensity turnout, a reasonable outcome/prediction for the electoral college looks like this: