Written by Kenneth Richard
The ‘Real Proxy’ Temperature Record Hints Near-Global Cooling Has Begun
As a new scientific paper (Turney et al., 2017) indicates, the Southern Ocean encompasses 14% of the Earth’s surface. And according to regional temperature measurements that have apparently not been subjected to warming “corrections” by data adjusters, the Southern Ocean has been cooling in recent decades.
The Northern Hemisphere embodies the top half (50%) of the world’s surface. And according to many scientists’ temperature reconstructions using proxy evidence (ice cores, tree rings, etc.) from numerous locations North of the equator, there has been no net warming in the Northern Hemisphere since the 1940s.
Antarctica (2.7%) and the Indian Ocean (14.4%) together represent about 17% of the Earth’s surface. Neither Antarctica nor the Indian Ocean has been observed to have warmed since the 1970s, with Antarctica exhibiting a cooling trend.
Just these regions of the globe alone represent more than 75% of the Earth’s surface. A net non-warming (cooling) trend in these regions in recent decades is highly inconsistent with commonly accepted instrumental data sets (such as NOAA, NASA, and HadCRUT) which show an abrupt recent warming trend – especially since the 1980s.
Is Ice Core Evidence More Reliable Than Heavily Adjusted Instrumental Record?
Earlier this year, an intriguing paper published by Steiger et al. (2017) contrasted the instrumental temperature record (which showed dramatic recent warming) with the global-scale temperature record as revealed by “real proxy” evidence from ice cores. The reconstructions using proxy evidence showed a global warming trend during the first half of the 20th century, and then no significant net warming thereafter.
“Through several idealized and real proxy experiments, we assess the spatial and temporal extent to which isotope records can reconstruct surface temperature, 500 hPa geopotential height, and precipitation. We find local reconstruction skill to be most robust across the reconstructions, particularly for temperature and geopotential height, as well as limited non-local skill in the tropics. These results are in agreement with long-held views that isotopes in ice cores have clear value as local climate proxies, particularly for temperature and atmospheric circulation.”
Interestingly, the Steiger et al., (2017) “real proxy” global temperature trends during the modern era seem to align with hundreds of other regional proxy temperature reconstructions that permeate the recently-published scientific literature.
Scientists have previously acknowledged that (a) an artificial (urbanization) warming bias of more than 0.1°C per decade existed in the post-1970s instrumental records, (b) 1/3rd of the oceans hadn’t even been sampled (temperatures) yet as of the 1990s, and (c) overseers of temperature data sets just “made up” temperatures in places where there was no data. Therefore, could it be possible that “real proxy” temperature reconstructions are more reliable and authentic than the data from thermometers corrupted by urbanization and bias?
Below is a compilation of about 65 graphs from peer-reviewed scientific papers indicating that recent decades are no warmer (and in several cases cooler) than the instrumental data sets suggest.
For large regions of the globe, cooling may have already begun.