Hurricane Irma, Hurricane Jose (R) and Hurricane Katia (L) are pictured in the Atlantic Ocean in this September 7, 2017 NOAA satellite handout photo. NOAA/Handout via REUTERS
Hurricane Jose has strengthened into a Category 3 storm, meaning that there are now two major hurricanes crossing the Atlantic for the first time since 2010.
This unusual occasion marks the first time in seven years that the Atlantic Ocean has hosted two major hurricanes and smaller hurricane at the same time, according to Colorado State University meteorologist Phil Klotzbach.
— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) September 7, 2017
Other three years w/ 3 hurricanes & 2 major hurricanes in Atlantic were 1893, 1961 and 2010.
— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) September 7, 2017
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) warned that Jose is packing maximum sustained winds around 120 mph, and forecasters say the storm may strengthen even more over the next day or two.
A hurricane watch is effective in Antigua and Barbuda, both of which are still recovering from Hurricane Irma hitting Wednesday. Irma made landfall as a Category 5 storm on Barbuda, reducing nearly all of the island’s building to rubble.
Jose could bring up to 10 inches of rain to the islands and “cause additional life-threatening flooding,” the NHC warned Thursday. Jose is expected to reach the Leeward Islands by Saturday.
Hurricane Irma Is NOT the Most Powerful Atlantic Hurricane Ever Recorded.
by David Middleton
Hurricane Irma is really bad. It may be the worst storm to hit the U.S. since 1935… But it is NOT the most powerful Atlantic hurricane ever recorded. So… Why do they have to lie about this?
- Hurricane Irma, the most powerful in recorded history, makes landfall in Caribbean islands
- Category 5 Irma Becomes Most Powerful Hurricane to Form in the Atlantic Ocean
- Hurricane Irma becomes most powerful storm ever recorded in Atlantic Ocean
Hurricane Irma Is Now The Most Powerful Atlantic Ocean Storm In Recorded History
Fresh off the back of the devastating Hurricane Harvey, the US is preparing for an even more dangerous storm – Hurricane Irma.
With wind speeds of 300 kilometers per hour (185 miles per hour), Irma now ranks as the most powerful hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean. It is the second most powerful in the Atlantic basin, which includes the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico, behind Hurricane Allen in 1980 that hit the latter two with winds of 305 km/h (190 mph).
Does IFL stand for “I FLunked” Science?
The Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico are in the Atlantic Ocean, just as much as the Sargasso Sea is in the Atlantic Ocean.
Caribbean Sea, suboceanic basin of the western Atlantic Ocean, lying between latitudes 9° and 22° N and longitudes 89° and 60° W. It is approximately 1,063,000 square miles (2,753,000 square km) in extent. To the south it is bounded by the coasts of Venezuela, Colombia, and Panama; to the west by Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala, Belize, and the Yucatán Peninsula of Mexico; to the north by the Greater Antilles islands of Cuba, Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Puerto Rico; and to the east by the north-south chain of the Lesser Antilles, consisting of the island arc that extends from the Virgin Islands in the northeast to Trinidad, off the Venezuelan coast, in the southeast. Within the boundaries of the Caribbean itself, Jamaica, to the south of Cuba, is the largest of a number of islands.
Gulf of Mexico
The Gulf of Mexico is a smaller part of the Atlantic Ocean, but it is the ninth largest body of water in the world.
Describing Irma as the most powerful Atlantic hurricane ever recorded is like calling Ted Williams the all-time American league home run leader because he hit the most home runs at Fenway Park.
Among the 24 most intense Atlantic hurricanes since 1924, Irma is currently tied for second in wind speed.
And tied for 12th place according to atmospheric pressure:
“The Most Powerful Atlantic Ocean Storm In Recorded History” meme fits the narrative: Global warming is causing hurricanes to become more severe… Another lie.
Hurricanes are not increasing in severity
The National Hurricane Center’s hurricane climatology page has a handy list of Atlantic Basin tropical storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes from 1851-2014. There is no statistically meaningful trend in hurricane frequency or severity.
While there might be a somewhat statistically significant increase in the number of tropical storms (R² = 0.2274), this could simply be due improvements in the detection and identification of storms at sea… There is no statistically meaningful trend in the numbers of hurricanes or major hurricanes.
There are also no statistically meaningful trends in the rates at which tropical storms are “blossoming” into hurricanes or major hurricanes:
Records are made to be broken
Irma came very close to breaking a wind speed record. So what?
The probability, pn(1), that the nth observation of a series xm= x1, x2, … xn has a higher value than the previous observations [pn(1) = Pr(xn > xi |i < n)] can be expressed as:
provided the values in series are iid random variables.
In 1941, Ted Williams had a .406 batting average. He was the last major league baseball player to hit over .400. While each at bat had its own independent probability, if Ted Williams had 5 at bats in a game, he probably had 2 base hits. While Irma has less than a 1% chance of breaking Allen’s wind speed record, the sum of individual probabilities since 1924 indicate that it’s about time for that record to fall.
See sheet 1 of the following spreadsheet for expected record calculations:
How did we ever survive the Medieval Warm Period?
If warmer waters inevitably lead to more severe hurricanes… How did humanity survive the Medieval Warm Period? Or the Minoan Warm Period? There must have been Category 9 hurricanes every year in 1000 BC!!! (/SARC)
Sargasso Sea SST reconstruction (Keigwin, 1996) and Major New England Hurricanes (Donnelly, 2001). https://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/11/03/frankenstorm-itis-five-degrees-of-separation-from-reality-and-eleventy-gazillion-joules-under-the-sea/
Beauty and the Beasts – Hurricanes #Katia #Irma and #Jose in one spectacular image
It is not often that you get to see two Atlantic and one Gulf of Mexico hurricanes all at once on a single satellite image, but we live in “interesting times” and the remarkable imagery from the new GOES-16 spacecraft continues to impress the world.
Hurricane expert Dr. Philip Klotzbach says:
Currently have 3 hurricanes w/ 2 major hurricanes in Atlantic – 4th time on record we’ve had 3 hurricanes w/ 2 majors at same time. Other three years w/ 3 hurricanes & 2 major hurricanes in Atlantic were 1893, 1961 and 2010.
Here, I’ve taken several snips and made a hi-res composite image to show a half-disk view of the Western Hemisphere as seen by visible light by GOES-16. Dr. Roy Spencer commented on Facebook today that
On that I agree, it’s also Nature’s deadliness on display. Like the famous “blue marble” image from 1968, this image too is a bit humbling, and a reminder that no matter how much we want to believe we can control weather/climate through our actions and lifestyle, Nature, when it so chooses, can squish us like a bug.
The Truth About Hurricane Irma
It’s all Trump’s fault.