Wall Street Places Its Bets on a Trump Win

Published July 7, 2023

President Joe Biden’s economic policies have made Americans poorer and his family richer. 

With less than four months until the 2024 election, Wall Street investors are placing bets that former President Donald Trump’s economy will financially benefit Americans.

A Politico report highlighted that Wall Street investors are bullish on Trump’s promise to lower taxes and decrease regulation as the likelihood of another Trump term looks to be a reality. 

“Spreads between two-year and 10-year Treasury notes were becoming more sensitive to Trump’s favorability, according to State Street’s MediaStats Election Indicator, likely because “inflation expectations are going up,” Noel Dixon, a global macro strategist at State Street, said. “The presumption is that Trump’s policies — which include across-the-board tariffs and mass deportations — would cause prices to rise.” 

The average American worker would ultimately benefit from Trump’s economic policies due to his harsh stance on illegal immigration as they grapple with Biden’s unfavorable trade policies.

With significant changes to the country’s immigration and trade policies should Trump secure the win, investors would be forced to resist “the risk of higher inflation and lower growth.” 

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SOURCE: www.townhall.com

RELATED: Markets on alert for Biden exit as Trump-win trades mount

According to an Axios report, the debate performance by Biden has caused significant concern among his own staff members regarding his cognitive abilities.
Published July 7, 2024

The red-hot Washington debate over whether President Joe Biden will scrap his run for re-election is spilling into Wall Street, where traders are shifting money to and from the dollar, Treasuries and other assets that would be impacted by Donald Trump’s return to office.

The recalibration of portfolios kicked off at the end of last week after Biden’s disastrous debate with Trump heightened concerns the 81-year-old Democrat is too old to serve another term. The trading action afterward was most acute in the bond market, where yields on benchmark 10-year Treasuries jumped as much as 20 basis points across the following days.

With speculation now mounting rapidly that Biden could drop out of the race — betting markets see less than a 50% chance he remains a candidate — investors are hastily making contingency plans to react to such an announcement during Thursday’s Fourth of July holiday and the subsequent weekend.

One fund manager, speaking on condition of anonymity given the sensitivity of the topic, said he was heading into the vacation stretch biased toward the dollar and short-term debt as hedges against the spike in risk he reckoned would be sparked by a Biden withdrawal. No president has opted against seeking a second term since Lyndon Johnson in 1968 and the election is just four months away.

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SOURCE: www.economictimes.com

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Cherry May Timbol – Independent Reporter
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