Publisert 30. sep. 2016
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Good afternoon, I’m still reporting on Trump
SR 1226 –Trump Snatches Lead in All Age Groups from Crooked Hillary
Donald Trump is surging farther ahead of Hillary Clinton in the USC Daybreak Poll.
Since the debate on Monday night, Trump has risen by 1.1% to 47.3% and Clinton has fallen one percent to 42.7%. That gives Trump a very healthy 5.6% lead. Notice also that today, Trump has surged above the poll’s “95% confidence interval”. According to the USC pollsters:
“Figures lying outside the gray band mean that we are at least 95% confident that the candidate with the highest percentage will win the popular vote.”
One of the interesting things about the Daybreak poll is it the only one that does not rely only on those who have voted in previous elections. This is what we have been calling the Monster Vote – the unmeasurable vote of those who have rarely – or never – voted previously, but are stepping up this time to defend their country.
But as you dig down into the data of this poll, it’s more good news for Trump. He leads Clinton now in every age group – most significantly in the 18-34 year-old group – the Millennials.
[Insert poll 5]
Their apparent Trump conversion took place on Monday, the 26th – the night of the debate.
My guess would be that Millennials saw Trump as perhaps ill-prepared and inartful, but genuine.
This as opposed to Clinton’s well-rehearsed responses – and apparently even collusion with the moderator, that all added up to a robotic performance with an accent on nasty.
The result – Trump now enjoys a 7.5% lead in that age demographic 45% to 37.5%. But also notice the momentum factor. The momentum factor at this point in the race is THE most important number, and THE most difficult to turn around. Trump is gaining ground and Clinton is plummeting. This momentum factor is apparent in the other age groups as well.
Trump also leads in the 35-64 age group by 3.9% and a 6.7% advantage in the over-65 crowd.
These age subdivisions include men and women and all races.
Trump is blowing Clinton away in the education category. In those with a high school education or less, Trump leads by a whopping 20.3 points – 35 to 55.3% and the momentum is still way in Trump’s favor.
In those with some college, Trump enjoys an 11.6% lead and the momentum looks even better.
Even amongst those with a college degree, where Clinton enjoys a more than 15% advantage, it looks like Trump’s momentum is affecting this group as well, though I’d need a couple more days to confirm a complete reversal.
More surprises when you look at the race by income levels. The poor still favors Clinton by 10 points, but from the momentum perspective, Trump is steadily gaining on her.
Trump enjoys the biggest lead amongst middle-class America to no one’s surprise. Trump enjoys a 16.8% lead – 53.2% to 36.4% lead with great momentum.
Before the debate, Clinton had nearly tied Trump in the $75,000 and over demographic, but after the debate, the momentum is all Trump’s with a 6.7% lead.
The other interesting change numbers are in the male/female demographic. In the last 2 days, Trump is closing the gender gap and now trails Clinton by only 8 points with women, 40 to 48%. But among men, Trump’s lead is HUGE – 19.4 points and headed north.
I’m still reporting from Washington. Good Day.
Bill Still is a former newspaper editor and publisher. He has written for USA Today, The Saturday Evening Post, the Los Angeles Times Syndicate, OMNI magazine, and has also produced the syndicated radio program, Health News. He has written 22 books and two documentary videos and is the host of his wildly popular daily YouTube Channel the “Still Report”, the quintessential report on the economy and Washington.