The Great Greenhouse Gas Theory Fail: 1997 – 2018

The greenhouse gas theory tells us that rises in atmospheric carbon dioxide cause rises in temperature. But while CO2 emissions almost doubled from 1997 this has not caused any global warming at all.

Now sensible scientists are examining why the man-made global warming theory has failed.

Below is a graph of the thermal radiation spectrum from the Earth which demonstrates a “V” shaped notch in the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) spectrum caused by the atmosphere’s 325ppmv CO2 content at the time.

The notch only cuts roughly 2/3rd  of the way into the spectrum leaving one third of the energy radiated by the Earth`s surface to escape into space.

The other 2/3rd of the energy represented by the ‘missing energy’ in the spectral notch is radiation from CO2 molecules in net directions other than in net vertical direction.

Since this is only 2/3rd of the energy radiated by the surface it is less than the energy radiated by the surface and therefore can’t cause the surface to warm; it can only reduce the rate at which the energy is radiated into space which means that it slows down the rate of cooling.

This is a graph of TSI showing that the average incoming Total Solar Irradiance is 1366.07W/m2 which divided by 4 to match the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) measurement from the entire Earth’s surface is 341.5W/m2.

The average OLR is roughly 232W/m2 and since net incoming energy must equal outgoing energy the difference between the 341.5W/m2 incoming TSI and the 232W/m2 OLR of 109.5W/m2 is the albedo of 32.06% (109.5/341.5).

If there was no atmospheric insulation this net 232W/m2 of incoming energy would heat the surface to a temperature of 252.92 K which would radiate unimpeded energy flux of 232W/m2 that would escape into space at this rate.

Because the energy is impeded by the atmospheric insulation at 252.92 K the full 232W/m2 cannot escape into space putting energy balance out of equilibrium.

When the ambient temperature is 20°C and your body temperature is 37°C, unprotected the skin temperature of your arm will be closer to the ambient 20°C than the body temperature of 37°C.

If you put on a long sleeve shirt your skin temperature will increase and if you put on a down jacket your skin temperature will increase even more, but the maximum it can rise to is the 37°C body temperature because the long sleeve shirt or down jacket cannot supply any heat limiting the temperature rise to the heat source body temperature of 37°C.

The same is true of the insulation provided by the atmosphere which is roughly 77% from clouds 13% from water vapour and 10% from CO2.

The energy source in this case is the net 232W/m2 energy from the sun which without any atmospheric insulation would result in a surface temperature of 259.92 K.

The  actual absolute surface temperature is roughly 287.3 K (14.15°C) which radiates at a blackbody rate of 386.3W/m2 with this radiation flux reduced to 232W/m2 by the atmospheric insulation.

This difference in surface temperature between what the surface temperature would be with and without atmospheric insulation is what we geophysicists have termed “The greenhouse effect” due to the similarity of process between atmospheric insulation and the insulation provided by the glass in a greenhouse.

Based on the values of 287.30 K for the actual surface temperature of the Earth and 252.92 K for the theoretical temperature of the Earth’s surface without any atmospheric insulation we have a difference in the value of surface temperature of 34.38°C which in geophysical terminology is a greenhouse effect of 34.38°C

Since CO2 in the atmosphere is only responsible for roughly 10% of the Earth’s 34.38°C greenhouse effect only 3.438°C of the greenhouse effect can be attributed to the 325ppmv atmospheric CO2 content that produced the “V” shaped spectral notch in the Earth’s thermal radiation spectrum as measured by the Nimbus 4 satellite in 1970.

Climate change nonsense” is based on the conjecture that doubling of the CO2 in the atmosphere would double carbon dioxide’s 3.438°C greenhouse effect raising the surface temperature by this 3.438°C to compensate for the increased insulation from atmospheric CO2 concentration of 650ppmv.

The fundamental flaw with this (rather silly) conjecture is that in order for the atmospheric insulation from CO2 to double the “V” shaped spectral notch created by CO2 would have to double in size as well but this is definitely not the case!

Mars has over nine times more CO2 in the optical path through its atmosphere than the Earth but the spectral notch created by nine times the CO2 is virtually identical to the notch created by 325ppmv CO2 concentration proving that the 13µ to 17µ wavelength band affected by CO2 is already so close to being fully affected (‘saturated’ in scientific terms) by CO2 at just 325ppmv concentration that no (detectable) further insulating effect is possible from any increases in CO2 concentration above this 325ppmv level regardless of how great the increase!

The Nimbus 4 Satellite was launched by NASA in 1970 so every NASA scientist should have been aware of this limitation in effect from increases in CO2 demonstrated by the spectral notch in the Earth’s thermal radiation spectrum, so it can only be considered an act of scientific fraud for NASA Scientists to proclaim in Hansen et al 1981 that their models predicted 2°C to 3.5°C of warming from a doubling of CO2 when empirical measurements made a decade earlier demonstrated that this was physically impossible!

The most sophisticated models suggest a mean warming of 2° to 3.5°C for doubling of the CO2 concentration from 300 to 600 ppm (6-8).

SCIENCE, VOL. 213, 28 AUGUST 1981

The fraud continued with Hansen’s June 23, 1988 presentation to the United States Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources in which Hansen put forward “Business as usual Scenario A”

This same Business as usual Scenario A was presented to world leaders in the 1990 IPCC First Assessment Report Policymakers Summary stated as:

Based on current model results, we predict:

  • under the IPCC Business-as-Usual (Scenario A) emissions of greenhouse gases, a rate of increase of global mean temperature during the next century of about 0.3°C per decade

This is the latest UAH MSU June 2018 global temperature data showing zero net global warming since 1997 instead of the fraudulently contrived model “Business as usual Scenario A”  prediction of 0.3°C/decade “during the next century”!

When empirical data shows that the 45.5% increase in CO2 emissions since 1997 has not caused any global warming at all; any claim of the necessity of reducing CO2 emissions to stop dangerous global warming must be considered fraudulent!



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Cherry May Timbol – Independent Reporter
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Why do CO2 lag behind temperature?

71% of the earth is covered by ocean, water is a 1000 times denser than air and the mass of the oceans are 360 times that of the atmosphere, small temperature changes in the oceans doesn’t only modulate air temperature, but it also affect the CO2 level according to Henry’s Law.

The reason it is called “Law” is because it has been “proven”!

“.. scientific laws describe phenomena that the scientific community has found to be provably true ..”

That means, the graph proves CO2 do not control temperature, that again proves (Man Made) Global Warming, now called “Climate Change” due to lack of … Warming is – again – debunked!